By Ben Jimenez
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Denton, TX
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October 23, 2026
Start with the after-repair value (ARV), not the purchase price. Pull sold comps for finished homes near the property, subtract a realistic rehab budget, then subtract every dollar of holding, financing, and selling cost. If there is still a profit you would be happy with after a few things go wrong, it might be a deal. In Denton right now that math is tighter than most people expect.
Your ARV has to come from closed sales, not list prices. Here is where Denton sits as of early October 2026:
Two sources, two different medians. That is normal, and it is exactly why a citywide median is useless as an ARV. Use three to five sold comps within the same neighborhood, similar size and age, sold in the last few months. A renovated 1940s bungalow near the square and a 2015 tract home in south Denton are different markets.
The 70% rule says your maximum offer is 70% of ARV minus repair costs. It is a quick screen, not a guarantee. The 30% it leaves is supposed to cover buying costs, holding costs, financing, selling costs, and your profit.
On a lower-priced house, 30% of ARV can disappear fast. On a higher-priced house, 70% can be more conservative than you need. Use it to throw out bad deals quickly, then run the full numbers on anything that passes.
This is a hypothetical example with round numbers. Say you find a house where solid comps support an ARV of $380,000 and you estimate $50,000 in repairs.
Total in: about $319,900. Sell at $380,000 and you net roughly $60,100 before income tax. That looks fine on paper. The next section is where it usually goes sideways.
Stay with the same hypothetical house.
Stack all three and that $60,100 is now around $14,750. That is the real test: does the deal still work after the ARV slips, the budget runs over, and the timeline stretches? If it only works when everything goes right, pass.
For tax year 2026, the City of Denton adopted $0.548485 per $100, Denton County adopted $0.183394, and Denton ISD adopted $1.1528. Stacked, that is about $1.88 per $100 of value before any other districts that apply to a specific address. An investment flip won't have a homestead exemption, so plan on the full rate.
One 2026 Texas lender guide puts hard-money rates at 8% to 12% depending on experience and leverage, with terms of 6 to 24 months, usually interest-only. A Houston-focused 2026 guide quotes 9.0% to 13.5% plus 1.5 to 3 points at origination. First-time flippers should expect to be at the higher end. Get real quotes before you write an offer.
The City of Denton requires a residential permit for remodels that include wall removal or additions, window or door replacement, garage conversions, or changes to electrical, mechanical, plumbing, or structural work. The city's current fee schedule lists the building permit at $0.89 per square foot plus a $141 plan review fee. Build permit time into your schedule.
A lot of Denton's older housing sits near downtown and the UNT and TWU campuses. The Oak-Hickory Historic District includes homes built between 1878 and 1931. If a property is in one of the city's local historic districts (Oak-Hickory, West Oak Area, or Bell Avenue), you need a Certificate of Appropriateness before exterior work begins, and the city won't issue a building permit until that is approved. If your plan includes new windows, siding, or porch work on one of those homes, build that review into the timeline.
If you are looking at a flip in Denton and want a second set of eyes on the comps and ARV before you commit, call or text Ben Jimenez at 469-730-6895. He can pull the sold data for that exact pocket and help you check whether the numbers hold up.
Usually not. The IRS says real property held primarily for sale does not qualify for like-kind exchange treatment, and a typical flip is bought to resell. Talk to a CPA about how your profit will be taxed before you close.
Aim for three to five closed sales of similar size, age, and condition in the same neighborhood from the last few months. Ignore active listings for value. If you can only find one good comp, treat the ARV as a guess and lower it.
Get at least a walkthrough and a ballpark from someone who does this work every week. On an older Denton home, also budget for an inspection that covers the foundation, roof, and sewer line. Surprises in those three areas are what blow up a budget.
It is a market where buyers have some room. The 30-day median sold price in Denton was $355,000 through mid-September 2026, and homes took a median of 30 days to sell. That means you should not count on a bidding war when you resell.
There is no official number. Pick a cushion before you buy and go bigger on older homes. In the example above, a 20% overrun alone cost $10,000. If the deal cannot absorb that, it is too thin.
Get a straight answer on pricing, timing, and what it would take to get you moved.
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